The buy-vs-lease math on a daily-driver EV

The standard advice — "always buy, never lease" — was correct for ICE cars in 1995. It's incomplete advice for an EV in 2026, because EVs depreciate differently and the software running them gets stale in a way an engine doesn't.

Let me show you the math on a $47,000 Tesla Model 3 Long Range — a plausible daily driver for someone in our income band — under both options. Real numbers, real dealer offers, taken from the last six months of dealer quotes I've collected.

$390/month, $3,500 down, 12,000 miles/year. $0 residual buyout option at end. Insurance averages $120/month for our age + clean record. Charging averages $40/month at home with the off-peak rate.

Three-year total: ($390 × 36) + $3,500 + ($120 × 36) + ($40 × 36) = $14,040 + $3,500 + $4,320 + $1,440 = $23,300.

At the end, you walk away. No sale. No depreciation hangover. You're free to pick up whatever the model 5 is when it ships.

$47,000 cash or financed at 6.9% over 60 months ($925/month, $11,100/year in payments). $7,000 federal EV tax credit assumed (real, current). Three-year carrying cost: insurance + charging same as above = $5,760.

If you sell at year 3: KBB on a 2023 Model 3 Long Range with 36k miles is currently $26,500. So your three-year cost is $47,000 − $7,000 (tax credit) − $26,500 (resale) + $5,760 (running costs) = $19,260 in pure outlay, plus the $11,100 × 3 = $33,300 in payments you made (which include principal repaid that's already in the resale number, so net cash out = the $19,260 + interest, roughly $2,800 interest paid).

True 3-year buy cost: ~$22,100.

The buy wins by about $1,200 at the 3-year mark. Real but small.

Same car, 7-year hold. Loan paid off in year 5. Carrying costs: $5,760 × 7 = $40,320. Software updates start lagging in years 4–5 (Tesla deprioritizes older HW3 cars on FSD-equivalent features). Out-of-warranty repairs — even one battery module replacement — runs $8,000–$15,000.

KBB on a 7-year Model 3 with 84k miles: $13,800. So total cost = $47,000 − $7,000 − $13,800 + $40,320 + $2,800 interest = $69,320.

Annual cost over 7 years: $9,900.
Annual cost of the 3-year lease cycle: $7,770 (and you've had three new cars).

The longer you hold an EV, the worse the buy looks relative to a lease cycle. ICE cars run this comparison in the opposite direction.

Lease if any of these are true: you drive under 12k/year, you want to use the EV tax credit but won't qualify directly (it's baked into the lease), you suspect you'll change car preferences inside 3 years, or you don't want to think about HV battery degradation.

Buy if: you drive 15k+/year, you keep cars 5+ years, you can pay cash or get sub-5% financing, and you're emotionally fine with depreciation.

Most people in the $5k–$8k/month lifestyle band fall into the lease bucket. The marketing has told you otherwise for 20 years.